2024s
- EFA 8.0%
- GLD 16.0%
- IEF 8.0%
- IWN 2.0%
- SPY 58.0%
- VNQ 8.0%
- Countercyclical Trend Following
- Faber’s 12-Month High Switch - Dynamic Bond
- Hybrid Asset Allocation - Simple
- AS results are based on the assumption trades are placed at the closing price of each month. At best I put my orders on 5 mins before the close. At worst I missed the whole day and placed them in closing hours which triggered the next trading day on the open. This was expected. Close is generally around 7am here in NZ so I can do it before work most days, but sometimes I forgot or I had other things happening. Overall it tracked pretty closely though.
- Having the 3 strategy combo meant I was diversified. This helped with drawdowns. I started just as the market was declining but my drawdown of -6.35% was much nicer than the near 10% the S&P500 had. The dip on month 9 was also more in my favour. Of course I didn’t get the better returns, however drawdowns happen and a lot of staying in the game is about sticking through those hard times.
- Saw @82mhz@oldbytes.space’s post on #OldComputerChallenge - triggered that I should do something with my old laptop.
- Decided to try Linux for the first time.
- Wiped Windows (no tears shed) and installed Linux Mint Cinnamon.
- Learned what CLI is - Command Line Interface - now use CLI.
- Learned what nano, vi, vim and emacs are - text editors accessible in the CLI - now use nano.
- Installed and use Taskwarrior command line task management tool.
- Installed and use the ImageMagick convert tool to edit images from the command line.
- Discovered the tildeverse.
- Learning what gopher and gemini are.
- Made a smolweb blog to learn out loud my weird and sudden smolweb, linux and command line nerdery.
- Can now blog from the command line.
- Snowtown (2011)
- Animal Kingdom (2010)
- Dragged Across Concrete (2018)
- Brawl in Cell Block 99 (2017)
- Blue Ruin (2013)
- Nitram (2021)
- The Iceman (2012)
- The House that Jack Built (2018) - this one was a bit more fun and artsy.
Not a bad run commute this evening. Spring is in the air. #running
Allocate Smartly Trading Update
For the past 12 months I have invested a portion of my capital using the Allocate Smartly tactical asset allocation free subscription. On the last trading day of the month just before close I realign my positions to whatever the allocation structure the Sample Model Portfolio #1 is set at according to their website. For example the current allocation is:
So I will hold these positions in place until the end of this month when they’ll display the next allocation. It takes me no more than 15 minutes to put my buy/sell orders on each month.
This portfolio is made up of three strategies:
I won’t pretend I know the intricacies of what these do. I do know though that it diversifies over 5-7 instruments, sometimes flicking me into 50% cash. Up to this point I haven’t been interested in the portfolio/strategy structure. I just wanted to get a feel for putting on the trades each month, tracking it against Allocate Smartly’s published results and the S&P500. This is my 12 month result:
My result in blue (Hatch is the broker I use), 10.32% return for 12 months is tidy. It is not as high as Allocate Smartly or the S&P500, but I couldn’t be happier considering the near zero effort I put in. A couple things to point out:
Now admittedly the market has been pretty strong during this period, with the S&P500 +17.53%, but I’ve just used the most basic (free) portfolio, which helped with drawdowns and gave me >10% return over a 12 month period (before tax, after broker fees). Current 12-month risk-free term deposits are hovering around 6.20%, which is damn good, so arguably you could say its not worth the risk, but I quite enjoyed the experience of following the market along and trying the service.
There are about 100 strategies available in the paid membership, which can be combined in any way to build a portfolio to trade, with detailed historical performance models to help further with choosing a best fit. Trading days are customisable, but I like the month-end trades (and a lot of the strategies are built around that). The blog is chockas full of good information including detailed summaries of each of the strategies. There are a number of advanced tools to dive deep into the data too.
I am contemplating paying for this annual subscription.
About me: running
I’ve been running now for 15 years, starting in 2009, seven years after my school years. In school I was naturally ok at the 800m and cross-country, pipping 2nd at most school carnivals, but I never considered it outside of required events.
It started when I left Sydney (northern beaches). I left on the back of a back injury and subsequent departure from my landscaping apprenticeship. I lingered in Sydney for a while with unfulfilling filler jobs. Sydney and the beaches had lost its charm for me, friends were dispersing, or simply we were moving on from each other.
Relocation 1 - Albury
Mum and Tony were just finishing building their house on their 500 acre property 6 hours away, just north of Albury, and were more than happy to have an extra hand on the farm while I figured out what I wanted to do with my life. I packed my stuff and left.
It was very organic step into running. First, my asthma started to disappear because I was out in the fresh country air away from the Sydney smog and humidity. My back started getting better with the work I picked up in the valley as farm-hand and gardening odd jobs. The area itself was beautiful with rolling hills out the back door. I wanted to be outside more.
The farm and start of my very first regular running route:
My first event was the Fed Hill Challenge in Wodonga, a 10k run with a wee hill included (more on hills later), placing an unspectacular 42nd. I must’ve not figured out the dress code for running yet as I remember someone commenting on my baggy longsleeves and boardies. I then did some more fun runs, mud runs and sprint adventure races over the next year.
Relocation 2 - Bathurst
Around this time I figured out what career path I wanted - something in GIS. An entry-level job came up in Bathurst, 5 hours north. It was worth the move, so my second big relocation ensued.
This is where things really ramped up. I was now only 1 hour away from the Blue Mountains and many state forests, and I quickly sniffed out the Running Wild trail running series and many other happenings in the area.
My event log while I resided in Aus:
I was always a trail runner. As time went on I wanted to go further, more technical, more veritical. I remember hating my first half marathon, but I’ll put that to being a flat road run and back in Sydney. I said “never again”. It wasn’t long after I was doing well beyond that distance as training runs. My sister had picked it up too, and we’d occasionally be at the same event, but most of the time we’d be doing different distances. Soph was regularly on the podium, and I loved being around to enjoy it with her. I started to get podiums too, but most of the time I’d be hovering around the back of the front packs.
Relocation 3 - Queenstown
In 2019 I moved to Queenstown, New Zealand. Dad being kiwi, we have been regular holidayers here forever, so it’s always felt like a second home. You can see in 2018 there were a couple events here, which really cemented my passion for the area. A job came up so thought “Why not?”. I now have trails and mountains at my doorstep.
When I moved I kicked off a trig bagging project, combining my trail running and now 10 year career in GIS and surveying, bagging 42 trig stations in the remaining 42 weeks of the year. It was for charity raising funds for men’s mental health initiatives, but also selfishly an awesome way to get to know my new home.
Kingston trig A32B
Now things got a little bonkers. My weekly elevation gain started going through the roof. I was now mapping out remote routes, or non-routes, scrambling questionable ridges and contending with serious river crossings and alpine conditions, so safety became a thing. 5 hour runs became 10, 15, 20, 40…
2016: fractured foot, 2019: moved to NZ:
I do less events now, much preferring to choose-my-own-adventure, be it tackling 10,000m of vert in a day, or my first 100-miler. But those ones are usually once a year. One event I did get to was the Old Ghost Ultra in 2020, which I got to share with Soph. We were both in pretty good form so the sibling race was finally on. Its 85km and we finished within 2 minutes of each other! Big bro won, but I had to fight for it with a little leapfrogging at the end. I came in 9th, while Soph got 11th (3rd female behind national superstars Ruth Croft and Ruby Muir!).
Ummm running?
What’s on the cards now? Get winter over with, and the injuries and sicknesses that’s been haunting me in 2024, then not sure really, explore more, do more overnighters, check out more of Fjordland, Mount Aspiring National Park, Takitimu Mountains, further north to Nelson Lakes, or maybe over the Canterbury ranges. Maybe I’ll do some more trig bagging, longer distances, or 20,000m in 48 hours? Bike-and-hikes are fun too. Scotland looks fun. Who knows.. I have loose plans on all those things, but really I’ll just build the fitness with some fun regular routes, so when the opportunity arises I’ll be ready to go give something a crack.
Running in new areas grows me as a person, but I’m mindful it is also a bit of a “safe place” for me mentally. I try not to abuse that aspect. Although it clears my head, it does not fix things at work, relations, or otherwise. I know though that running is here to stay. It’s taken me places I would never have expected, and although I do most of it solo, it has sparked some friendships, and I literally run into people quite regularly on the local trails. Let’s see where this goes.
General shit
Went back to work today. Took annual leave on Mon/Tues and sick yesterday. Made it only a few hours today, then came home coughing and spluttering. Probably should have stayed away. It was a beautiful day though so great to get out. Head was ok so I continued working from home.
On the way home I picked up a new pair of trail runners that had arrived. My 5th pair of Topo Mountain Racers. First time on series 3. Mountain Racers have been the longest running pair of shoe I’ve stayed with. I clock around 900km per pair (though after 600k they’re only good if I don’t need the grip so they become my towny shoes).
Winter has finally arrived here with some decent snow coverage on higher ground. Should keep the skiers happy, not to have to solely rely on the snow cannons. Not sure if I’ll get up this year.
Roast veg is in the oven - carrots, beets, onion and garlic from the garden. Had to buy spuds (I never buy spuds! but I’ve run out). Got some salmon and broc to go with.
Heads an absolute mess. Not sure if I want to write about that. I’m getting help, but these have been the darkest days.
Snow run out the back of Arrowtown (Miner’s trail). Also, I’m sick. Probably shouldn’t have done that, but I needed to check, and yep, definitely sick. 2024 has been shyte. #trailrunning
Weeknote 2024-W30
Gone full nerd this week. It went something like this:
This has triggered a million things I want to try. I’m not a programmer or developer by trade clearly but if I need or want to do things I can generally pick the basics up pretty quick. These things sometimes become useful at work too.
Anyway I’m a kid in a candy store right now. I am super interested in playing with the GNU Recutils plain text database management tool. Maybe I can log my vege gardening in it, hook it to a Strava API, or log my reading.
Grabbing SOFA by its horns right now - Start Often Finish rArely / Start Often Fuck Achievements.
#weeknotes
Grim crime thrillers
My favourite film genre right now are dark, grim, realistic crime thrillers. I think what grabs me is they all feel like they could be happening in our own neighbourhood (some of them did), and/or there are characters that you can sympathise with. Some you don’t at all, but the acting is outstanding in all of them.
They aren’t as stylishly epic as a Tarantino flick, or ultra violent or gory, but they hover around those boundaries, which I think makes it just that bit more unsettling and gripping.
I absolutely loved these ones. I wouldn’t recommend binging them. Might come out the other end a bit twisted.
If you know of these and want to recommend anything similar let me know!
I pretend these are boosters from Mario Kart. Pew pew.
Trail users
I logged the trail users I passed on my run today. It was a beautiful sunny winter’s Saturday and I started at midday. Distance was 18.5km and the route included part of the Twin Rivers Trail and Frankton Track, along the riverside all the way in. These are very accessible trails.
I forgot one or two users. Had to stop halfway and note them down. I wonder if anyone else was counting? Doubt it.
The order of things:
| Who | Activity |
|---|---|
| Woman | walking dog/s |
| Kid | riding bike/s |
| Duo | riding bike/s |
| Woman | walking dog/s |
| Man | running |
| Group | walking horses off to side |
| Duo | walking dog/s |
| Man | riding bike/s |
| Dog | walking |
| Woman | riding bike/s |
| Duo | riding bike/s |
| Duo | riding bike/s |
| Duo | riding bike/s |
| Family | riding bike/s |
| Man | riding bike/s |
| Woman | riding bike/s |
| Duo | riding bike/s |
| Woman | riding bike and walking dog |
| Duo | riding motorbikes off to side |
| Family | peeing in bush |
| Duo | walking dog/s |
| Duo | walking dog/s |
| Woman | walking dog/s |
| Duo | riding bike/s |
| Man | running |
| Woman | walking |
| Woman | walking baby in pram |
| Trio | walking dog/s |
| Man | running |
| Man | walking |
| Woman | walking |
| Man | reading on bench |
| Woman | sitting on bench |
| Trio | drinking beers on bench |
| Family | riding bike/s |
| Group | jetboating on lake |
| Man | riding bike/s |
| Group | jetboating on lake |
| Group | jetboating on lake |
| Trio | riding bike/s |
| Duo | walking dog/s |
| Woman | running |
| Duo | walking |
| Woman | raking private entrance |
| Family | riding bike/s |
In a rabbit hole
Ok, I’m in a rabbit hole of IndieWeb/SmallWeb/SmolWeb/Blogging content. There is some fantastic stuff out there. People are amazing.
Warning: Click through at your own discretion. Any of the links below might lead you down a similar rabbit hole.
With webrings, blogrolls, postrolls, links pages, linkdumps, bookmarks, little bits, inspo pages, blogging challenges, web events, categorised directories and blog directories with real humans behind them, #hashtags, search engines, there is endless wonderful content.
So yes, blogging is alive and well and the internet is fun.
There are RSS feed readers to give you control, browsers to keep it clean, blockers to keep out the shyte, software to connect.
Follow people who share good ethics, read blogs that introduce you to technical concepts.
There are platforms to write, services to publish, guides to keep it light and accessible, resource pages to give you the tools to build, trigger lists for post ideas, and beyond.
Glad I got that out. Time to go outside.